Applied Math Modeling - A Multidisciplinary Apprch by D Shier, K Wallenius

By D Shier, K Wallenius

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By this time, so many hundreds of thousands of American lives have been wasted by not shutting down high contact facilitating establishments that changing policy could leave open a myriad of litigious possibilities. The families of the dead or dying might have good reason to ask why such policies were not taken fifteen years ago. ” We cannot ourselves hope to change public policy.

There was a great deal of expectation that “the cavalry will soon ride to the rescue” in the form of an expected vaccine against the disease. In 1955, the Salk vaccine1 did appear, and new polio cases, for the United States, became a thing of the past. Of course, a residual population of tens of thousands of Americans remained, crippled by polio. There was very little in the way of a postmortem examination about how effective public health policy had been in managing the American polio epidemic.

For example, by mid-1997, the United Kingdom had a cumulative total of 15,081 cases compared to 612,078 for the United States. 33. 37. On the other hand, at the same time, Canada had a cumulative AIDS total of 15,101. A. 37. A. A. vis-a-vis Canada. Yet, in all three countries the rate of growth of AIDS cases is nearly the same. 12 in 1995. Yet it is very nearly the same for each country in any given year. One could therefore predict the number of new cases in France in a given year, just about as well knowing the case history of the United States instead of that in France.

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